Global electricity generation to supply data centres is projected to grow from 460 TWh in 2024 to over 1 000 TWh in 2030 and 1 300 TWh in 2035 in the Base Case. Over the next five years, renewables meet nearly half of the additional demand, followed by natural gas and coal, with nuclear starting to play an increasingly important role towards the end of this decade and beyond.

Coal, with a share of about 30%, is the largest source of electricity, though this varies significantly by region, with the highest contribution found in China. Renewables – primarily wind, solar PV and hydro – currently supply about 27% of the electricity consumed by data centres globally. Natural gas is the third-largest source today, meeting 26% of the demand, followed by nuclear with 15%. It should be noted that this analysis considers the fuel mix of the electricity physically consumed by data centres (considering both onsite generation and electricity received through the grid, taking into account the fuel mix of the local electricity systems they are located in) rather than the contractual mix of different data centre operators.

Taken together, renewables remain the fastest-growing source of electricity for data centres, with total generation increasing at an annual average rate of 22% between 2024 and 2030, meeting nearly 50% of the growth in data centre electricity demand. This growth is primarily driven by the rising deployment of wind and solar PV in power systems across the globe, with some of the new capacity financed through PPAs with technology companies. Some data centre operators also invest directly in co-located renewables. Even so, new demand from data centres is a significant near-term driver of growth for natural gas-fired and coal-fired generation, through both higher utilisation of existing assets and new power plants. Natural gas and coal together are expected to meet over 40%  of the additional electricity demand from data centres until 2030. After 2030 SMRs enter the mix, providing a source of baseload low-emissions electricity to data centre operators. Currently, hyperscalers are among the key corporate backers of SMR development. Coupled with the ongoing growth of renewable electricity generation, the resulting increase in nuclear electricity generation leads to an absolute decline in coal-fired generation for data centre operations by 2035.

Consequently, CO₂ emissions from electricity generation for data centres peak at around 320 Mt CO₂ by 2030, before entering a shallow decline to around 300 Mt CO₂ by 2035. Despite rapid growth, data centres remain a relatively small part of the overall power system, rising from about 1% of global electricity generation today to 3% in 2030, accounting for less than 1% of total global CO₂ emissions.

The United States and China are by far the largest data centre markets today. In both countries, most of the electricity consumed by data centres is produced from fossil fuels, which also meet most of the increase to 2030. However, rising deployment of renewables and later nuclear is expected to slow the growth of fossil fuel power generation after 2030.

With a share of over 40%, natural gas is currently the biggest source of electricity for data centres in the United States, followed by renewables – mostly solar PV and wind – with 24%, as well as a nuclear and coal power with shares of close to 15% and about 20% respectively. As demand growth is particularly rapid over the next five years, natural gas is the largest source of additional supply, adding over 130 TWh of annual generation until 2030. Renewables are the second-largest source of additional electricity supply, adding 110 TWh to the data centre electricity supply between 2024 and 2030. This is mainly due to the continuing increase in the share of wind and solar PV in the electricity mix of most states, as well as some data centre operators investing in co-located renewables.  

Nuclear power plays a significant role in meeting data centre electricity demand in the United States, particularly after 2030 when the first SMRs are expected to be commissioned. Technology companies have plans to finance more than 20 GW of SMRs to date, though successful development of the technology could open up even larger opportunities. Together with the ongoing increase in renewable electricity generation, the expansions of SMRs reduces the need for additional natural gas-fired generation so that by 2035 low-emissions sources account for over half of the United States’ data centre electricity supply mix.

As they are located mostly in the east of the country, the data centre electricity supply in China today is dominated by coal with a near 70% share, followed by renewables with nearly 20%, nuclear close to 10% and natural gas accounting for the remainder. Between 2024 and 2030 coal remains the largest source of additional electricity for data centres, with annual generation increasing by nearly 90 TWh. Renewables, mostly solar PV and wind, add nearly 90 TWh over the same period, supported by an increase in the share of renewables in the grid electricity mix, provincial co-location mandates and policies to prioritise the construction of data centres in renewables-rich western China. After 2030 the introduction of SMRs significantly boosts the nuclear share of the data centre electricity mix. Between 2030 and 2035 the rise in renewables and nuclear pushes coal into decline. By 2035 both sources together make up nearly 60% of the data centre electricity supply in China.

In Europe renewables and nuclear are set to supply most of the additional electricity required, with their combined share rising to 85% by 2030. Japan and Korea together account for about 5% of global data centre electricity demand today, a share they are expected to retain to 2030. Renewables and nuclear are set to provide nearly 60% of the electricity consumed by data centres in 2030, up from 35% today. The rest of the world is responsible for about 10% of total data centre electricity generation, with Southeast Asia and India accounting for a significant portion of that. In both regions, coal remains a key pillar of the data centre electricity supply, but renewables are projected to eclipse it by 2035. 

Across all cases, renewables play a pivotal role in meeting the growing electricity demand. However, fossil fuels remain important for meeting the near-term surge in demand up to 2030.

Across all cases, renewables meet most of the additional electricity demand from data centres to 2035. In the High Efficiency Case and the Headwinds Case, global data centre-related electricity generation grows more slowly than in the Base Case. In the High Efficiency Case it rises to about 1 100 TWh by 2035, more than 15% lower than in the Base Case. In the Headwinds case it reaches 790 TWh, more than 40% lower than in the Base Case. In both of these cases, renewables meet 55% or more of the increase in data centre electricity demand to 2030, compared with around 50% in the Base Case, although in both cases the increase is smaller in absolute terms. In the Lift-Off Case, where global electricity generation associated with data centres surges to nearly 2 000 TWh by 2035, 45% higher than in the Base Case, around 45% more renewable electricity generation is added between 2024 and 2030, but long grid connection queues mean that most of the additional increase beyond that is met by fossil fuels.

Across the outlook period, fossil fuels, particularly coal and natural gas, remain crucial in addressing potential demand spikes. In the Lift-Off Case, between 2024 and 2030 nearly 50% of the additional electricity generated for data centres comes from fossil fuels. Natural gas-fired power generation grows about 1.5 times faster than in the Base Case, with the United States experiencing the most significant absolute increase. Similarly, coal-fired generation grows twice as fast, with China contributing most of the additional generation. By 2035 fossil fuels account for about 35% of the additional electricity consumed by data centres globally. In the High Efficiency Case and the Headwinds Case, fossil fuels respectively supply around 35% and 15% of the additional electricity, as opposed to 28% in the Base Case. The share of fossil fuels in total electricity generation for data centres in 2035 remains at around 40% across all cases.

In the Base, High Efficiency and Headwinds cases, CO2 emissions from electricity generation for data centres peak around or before 2030. However, in the Lift-Off Case, which sees significantly higher levels of fossil fuel-based electricity generation, they continue to increase until the early 2030s, peaking at nearly 1.5 times the maximum emissions level of the Base Case.