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Empowering Ukraine Through a Decentralised Electricity System

A roadmap for Ukraine’s increased use of distributed energy resources towards 2030

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About this report

This roadmap from the IEA, Empowering Ukraine through a Decentralised Energy System, outlines a pathway to rebuild and modernise Ukraine’s power sector amid ongoing attacks on its energy infrastructure.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, nearly two-thirds of Ukraine’s dispatchable power capacity has been occupied, damaged, or destroyed. The report highlights distributed energy resources (DERs) as a vital solution to address their power deficit while enhancing Ukraine’s energy security, resilience, and flexibility. DERs – such as solar PV, wind, batteries, and small modular gas turbines – enable local power generation while also reducing vulnerability to targeted attacks. IEA analysis shows that a diverse mix of DERs offers a cost-effective and resilient path for Ukraine’s power system recovery.

Urgent actions include deploying small gas turbines and DERs such as solar PV and batteries to address a projected 6 GW winter power deficit in 2024/2025. The move towards a greater level of decentralisation in power generation can also support Ukraine in meeting its long-term decarbonisation goals, as set out in the 2030 National Energy and Climate Plan and the 2050 Energy Strategy. The roadmap also lays out seven key policy recommendations for Ukraine to build a more resilient and modern power system by establishing a vision for decentralisation and by strengthening regulatory frameworks, coordination mechanisms, electricity markets and relevant technical requirements.

Online table of contents

While there are a few top-down estimates of the potential for rooftop PV in Ukraine, the general approach lacks the level of detail and reliability required for transformation strategies of the energy system. Hence, in context of the report Empowering Ukraine Through a Decentralised Electricity System, a pioneering, detailed and bottom-up approach was developed to create a new high-resolution dataset of capacity and generation potential for Ukraine. 

The results of the joint rooftop PV potential assessment by IEA and Jülich Systems Analysis are made accessible as open data to support further modeling initiatives. The downloads are found under the “Related files” tab in the “Rooftop PV Assessment” section, both as csv tables and geodata shapefiles. In addition to the data displayed above, hourly generation timeseries over 20 years are provided per every district and module orientation. Detailed information about the methodology and further result analyses have been published here.

Below map illustrates the energetic potential of rooftop photovoltaics in Ukraine either at province (oblast) level or at district (raion) level. The data allows to explore the capacity and energy potential as well as the annual full-load hours (FLH) and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). All values are available per each module orientation, i.e. for roof sections that are facing South, East, North or West and flat roofs, as well as for different module tilts in steps of 10°.


Data Citation:

Christoph Winkler, Kristina Dabrock, Serhiy Kapustyan, Craig Hart, Heidi Heinrichs, Jann Michael Weinand, Jochen Linßen, Detlef Stolten (2024) "High-Resolution Rooftop-PV Potential Assessment for a Resilient Energy System in Ukraine.", Available from: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2412.06937

File description:

capacity_and_energy_attribute_metadata_WinklerDabrockKapustyanEtAl2024.yaml
This is a meta file containing flow text explanations of the attribute names used in below 'capacity_and_energy_data_GID_X_level_WinklerDabrockKapustyanEtAl2024.csv/.shp'. The shapefile format requires attributes of max. 10 characters which makes tha attributes/column names hard to read.

capacity_and_energy_data_GID_X_level_WinklerDabrockKapustyanEtAl2024.csv/.shp
This file contains the capacity and long-run average annual energy potential for every region, separately for every combination of azimuth and roof tilt. Also, it contains the long-run average full-load hours (FLH), levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and additional region information. The "X" in above filename stands for the administrative level as defined by GADM.org. In the case of Ukraine, GID_1 corresponds to oblasts (provinces) whereas GID_2 corresponds to raions (districts/cities). The data at GID_2 level is available also as geospatial data in .shp format with district polygons.

Energy_capacity_factor_timeseries_per_GID_2_AllAzimuths_yearX.csv
This file contains the hourly capacity factor timeseries of the rooftop PV generation for every respective year, see "X" in filename. The column name e.g. "UKR.23.11_1_E_15.0deg_2000" defines the district (see 'capacity_and_energy_data_GID_2_level_WinklerDabrockKapustyanEtAl2024.csv/.shp' for matching the GID_2 codes of needed), the azimuth, the average roof tilt in degrees and the year, each separated by underscore. The 8760 values from 0-1.0 for every system configuration describe the output capacity factor of the respective system in the respective hour of the year.

Juelich Systems Analysis (ICE-2)
The research focus of Jülich Systems Analysis (ICE-2) is the unbiased, scientific investigation of technologies, technology paths, value chains and market ramp-ups in future energy systems, considering material requirements, sector coupling and framework conditions in policy and society. The addressees are science, decision-makers from politics, industry and social actors. To answer the research questions, Jülich Systems Analysis creates complex models to analyze and evaluate technologies, infrastructures and resources for future energy systems using an open-science approach. This is done in an interdisciplinary approach that considers the interaction of energy technologies with economic, ecological and social systems and thus focuses on security of supply, economic efficiency and environmental protection. An integral part of the research work is the creation of a consistent and sustainably usable data basis in accordance with the open data principle.

Related files

Rooftop PV Assessment Results

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